Curse

Arcane De Farad · Jan 11, 2007, 01:12 AM // 01:12

Quote:

Originally Posted by fabiola

Hi Arcane,

This post was for people who can afford ectos. If you can't afford them yeah I could understand you not caring. :P

I can afford a lot of ectos, but i will not sell them anyway... . This game is not about money. Its about fun.

The Herbalizer · Jan 11, 2007, 02:49 AM // 02:49

wow. not just ebayers buy from the trader you know....

i have bought like 500k worth of ecto in one go from the trader as noone was selling them and i lost patience. same with shards, i have bought all 105 for fow in one go. the prices never changed on ecto to my knowledge, they only changed on shards.

at the end of the day when ecto from players is say 7k and from trader is 7.5k i would buy from whoever can give me quickest. im not losing much buying from trader tbh.

nitetime · Jan 11, 2007, 03:00 AM // 03:00

Quote:

Originally Posted by DiabolicalBob

I gotta ask. Where in the world are you ppl getting your loot??? Nearly playing a year now and i have never been near 400k @ a time. btw, what is the top-out in gold storage (how high)? Sorry that this doesnt really pertain to the actual original post

but you ppl obviously have some jack. im jealous

Well didnt you read this???

Quote:

Originally Posted by Talon one

my guess is that the ecto price increase is because of the wintersday event and high player activity. i went from hardly 100k in my storage to 600something just from on and off wintersday item selling, and i know there are ppl that made much more gold than me. and if a fair number of them decided to spend their easily earned gold on fissure armor, the price will go up.

I guess I missed the day that fruitcakes sold for what...5k each.

Captain Arne Is PRO · Jan 11, 2007, 03:27 AM // 03:27

Quote:

Originally Posted by Carinae Dragonblood

Same here. These whippersnappers today don't know how easy they got it...

I purchased the 105 ecto/shards required for the armor from the mat trader back when it was 17k a pop, decided I didn't like it anymore, and resold it to the mat trader.

XD

HawkofStorms · Jan 11, 2007, 03:29 AM // 03:29

Actually, the wintersday arguement may hold some truth. I made like 80k the first 2 days selling cc shards for 250g each (which was the going rate right at the start).

Unfortunately, it really doesn't work out quite the way Talon one said. Wintersday stuff doesn't really generate new cash, but instead transfers cash from one person to another. Thus maybe the wintersday stuff transfered money away from the "economically challenged" (people who bought cc shards for 250g the first day where stupid because they should have realized prices would tank when supply increased) to the "economically wise" (people like me who follow supply and demand to make money out of wintersday would also be more likely to be the type of person to play the ecto market).

Antheus · Jan 11, 2007, 04:13 AM // 04:13

Quote:

Originally Posted by Akhilleus

yet another case of someone not knowing what they are talking about.
ive said it once and i'll say it again, the hundreds of thousands or millions of players activly participating in the economy can, do, and will supercede the effect of a few people, except on a short term basis.

...

sometimes this process of ebb and flow takes hours, days, weeks or even months before it hits the crest and the lull respectivly.
the fact that you chalk off economic movements to ebay is a sheer demonstration of your absolute lack of economic understanding, as is the case of ANYONE crying ANY situation of a handful of ebayers driving up prices.

but i guarantee you, the changing of hands of ecto on the open market, has a higher influence on the price than people buying/selling to the merchant.
the unintelligent individual thinks that the merchant sets the price of ecto.
W R O N G. the market sets the price; its only when the market is not providing what the player base's opinions of what the ecto market should be, that it then changes. you might say "well, when the ecto buy price is 8k and the sell price is 6k, that means their player to player value (market value) is 7k!" and then i'd countermand "no, thats incredibly short sighted. its because the market WANTS ecto at 7k, that people buy and sell to the merchant (by instinct and numbers) accordingly, to fall into the realm of their acceptance." the median price perceived at the material trader is merely a representation of the strength of ecto in perspect to the market economie's demand of them. plain and simple.

Geez, dude. What did you get kicked out of economy course and now bare a grudge against anyone who might enter your chosen domain?

Take a chill pill, stop yelling, and take a break from game.

The only thing you managed to demonstrate, is complete ignorance of GW's economy. It's not real world economy, but in/out based system with inertia. It works the same way as ranking boards with votes determine the placement. Yes, it's controlled, yes it's biased. It's a controlled, pre-defined system. You do get initial spike when system is introduced, until parameters settle themself.

Yes, you can spike the prices. Yes, you can affect them yourself. Go buy 100 ectos and watch the prices. Or better yet, buy 500 of them.

You think eBay and spike buying has no effect? A bunch of people buys 1 million each from eBay, then proceeds to buy ectos and shards. That drives the price up.

Ridle me this, oh great wizard of economics: Ecto: 9k, shards 2.8k - this very moment..

Funny, isn't it. Less than a day later, and prices are back to normal.

It was a coincidental spike buy from players. Most likely those who eBayed the cast for it. In addition, it could be eBay sellers who stock up on ectos, and sell them as packages.

There are long-term fluctuations, but this was not one of it. This was momentary occurance, not a trend.

Talon one · Jan 11, 2007, 04:18 AM // 04:18

true, there is not much more gold generated than usual, but a lot of gold is changing hands. there are ppl going for the drunkard title, there are ppl stocking up insane number of candy canes of all colors and yes, there may even be some ebayers spending gold left and right.
and with 20 million hours played during the event, theres got to be a couple of newly rich players ready to buy ecto

i was farming gargoyle skulls the week before xmas and it took less than an hour to get 100 - and less than 30 seconds to sell them for 17k. thats pretty profitable in my book, especially considering that it takes so little effort you can watch a movie while farming. (and yes, i watched the entire star wars thingie

)

Akhilleus · Jan 11, 2007, 04:22 AM // 04:22

first, lemme say off the bat that, yes ebay is a problem in the game.
however, i think that problem is GROSSLY overestimated by the general player base. from what i've seen, a VAST majortiy of players have a total lack of comprehension that it is indeed possible to make money in this game without ebaying. whats worse, is they make this assumption, usually, because they cannot do so themselves.

Quote:

Originally Posted by korcan

i disagree with u. the wealthiest gw players do, in fact, control an aspect of the economy... pricing.
of course, this doesnt apply to rare materials but prices on rare items are determined by the gw rich.

you are correct in that the fewer the players who can afford an item, the fewer it takes to determine the pricing.
however, you are wrong in that this is a "price control." for one; the prices stay high only so long as there are people WILLING AND ABLE to afford said prices. when the number of people capable of doing BOTH of the aforementioned prerequisites declines, along with it the price.
this is especially prevelant of "fad items." items with enormous temporary popularity and price hikes.
however, this argument, in its entirety, is devoid from the regular economic market.
because ectos are (relativly) affordable, the amount of people able to invest in them is massive...large enough to unhinge the will of a single highly wealthy individual. as i stated in a previous thread; with a liquid asset base of (at the time) over 39 million, i only saved myself a 3% commission by attempting to temporarily influence ecto prices, gradually, over the period of a month. and this was the brainchild and extensive planning of ONE SINGLE PERSON. in order to get the same amount of funds from a group of, lets say, middle-class players, you'd probably need a few dozen people. and do you REALLY think the coordination between a few dozen people will match that of one, single person? answer: probably not.
as i mentioned in that same thread; in order to noticeably influence the ecto market for a long enough period of time to really make use of it; you'd probably need (and this was an estimation) on the lines of 400+million in LIQUID ASSETS to really accomplish anything substantial.
and let me put it this way, the top 10 richest players that i know of (who still play), COMBINED, including myself, would not be able to come up with this kind of a number.
my best guess as to the price-hike, is that it was a temporary thing, possibly orchestrated by a group of people, trying to dump their ectos at a high price. i, for one, doubt it was a coordinated effort, though it may have been; but it was more than likely just people sick of standing around trying to buy ectos at a price they were willing to pay higher for. (and no, this doesnt necissarily mean ebay)
however, as i stated, the price of ectos isnt determined by the trader, its determined by the market...and the market disagreed with these people, and put the ecto prices right back down to 9k.
note: that this is the exact reason i GRADUALLY released my ecto on the market in my own experimentation; because i knew if i had sold them en masse`, people would just mass-buy form the merchant, raise the price back up and defeat the whole purpose.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blame the Monks

Generally the econ 101 is on target, but you overestimate the size of the market for ecto. The overwhelming majority of players do not buy or sell any ecto at all. Only a tiny minority farm, buy, or sell ecto and most of those people rarely do so in bulk. Reference the old dev post that said something like 95% of players had less than 10k and didn't own any sets of 15k armor. Also observe for yourself how few toons have fissure. Because the market for ecto is relatively small, it is more subject to manipulation by a few players in the short term. Finally, this short term manipulation HAS happened in the past, as most of the old timers will recall. Many people used to ban to together to buy out the trader and jack the price up to control the market. I have a screen of black dye selling for 35k at the trader because of this, for example.

and each, and every one of those efforts most likely ended in a financial disaster.
and once again, if it were true that so few people controlled ecto prices, than my past experiment would have been a far, far greater success.
ive seen blacks at artificually high prices, as well as ecto, but they dont stay there for long, and the players know this.
i would think VERY few people actually bought ectos for the higher price that was recently seen, knowing it would go back down; only the impatient types that brought it up to begin with; and are now kicking themselves.

Quote:

Akhilleus makes me always smile when he applies economic theories to GW

I mean, if someone wants to apply an economic model to anything, he should have reliable data on what is going on in the "economy".
Do we know how much gold is produced every day and what is the trend? Do we know how many ectos/sapphs/rubies are dropped? Do we know how many of those rares are burnt in the process of creating armors? And do we know how those figures are evolving?
NO. Since no one has those information, everything is a pure guess, no one can claim to be the owner of the truth in this field.

this is true, but do you know every aspect of the real world economy either?
No.
and neither do i.
it is because we ALL lack a total understanding of the economy, that we develope economic theories, rules and predictions. some, are more accurate than others, and some are more inaccurate. some are more well-researched, others are pulled out of peoples asses, etc.
do i claim to know everything about the GW economy? or even claim to be the most knowledgeable person about it?
No.
however, unlike most people who come on here screaming inevetable doom, my thoughts and ideas (iand quite a few people agree with me here) have been reasonably well-thought out, and more often than not, i've been right. i did not become a wealthy player by farming, i became a wealthy player by trading, and predictions. cosidering my relative degree of sucess, i'd say i'm not a complete dolt.

Quote:

Ectos are not currency (despite they're used as currency in some cases). Ectos are "produced" in some areas of the game, but also destroyed when players craft their armors. Dollars are not destroyed, I don't think that when you buy a car for 100k dollars, the seller takes you bucks and burns them on fire LOL.

you have a point here.
however, its a point i've addressed before.
i cant state a fact on this figure, and noone can, but it does stand to reason that the VAST majority of ectos arent used for FoW armor, but as a currency for trades instead.
its almost certain that the amount of ectos farmed, exceeds the amount used...probably in droves; which is what leads to players' ability to hoard ectos, without the price continually soaring.

Quote:

The market sets the price, the market wants ectos at Xk ... what is the market?
The market are players, players don't "want" ecto at 7k, they want them at 100g or less.
And traders DO influence the prices, the first thing a seller/buyer watches is the trader price, and then he starts to spam WTS/WTB for 1k less.
Did player in the past "want" superior absorptions at 100k? No, they wanted at 100g as now. They went at 100k because players with eccess cash had no problem in buying for whatever price.

ill address the sup aborb point a little further, for now ill focus on the claim of players wanting ecto at 100g.
this, is a total fallicy. since you arent devoid of thought(like the gentleman who cried ebay), i will entertain you with an address to this point, and i do believe you will understand it; which is actually a compliment. players do NOT want ecto at 100g...at least not permenantly. if this happened they would lose their power. yes, a personw ould want them at 100gp if they were trying to buy them up for later profit, or if they wanted FoW but lacked the funds.
but, because of ecto's use as a trade-moderation device (aka, currency), their price is determined moreso by their use for purchasing power than anything else. yes, some players want them at a cheap price, but there are substantially more who want them at a higher price, so as to maintain their investment, or possibly increase their profits.
ectos will generally reside where the market wishes them to be.
and yes, people check the merchant before going to sell/buy ecto. but, think of the deeper implication in this.
they check the merchant because they know that people will be buying/selling ecto somewhere around the median point; because that is the point of harmony in which the amount of people selling to the merchant, and the amount of people buying formt he merchant has evened out.
but wait, did i not just contradict msyelf and admit that ecto prices are determined by the trader?
No.
why?
because, as a general rule, no action will be taken unless there is a perceived benefit to said action. what do i mean by this? well, a person will not buy from the merchant, unless they feel the added cost outweighs the lost time in trying to find sellers for the desired price. and conversly, they will not sell unless they feel the potential lost income is outweighed by the time it takes to sell (remember time=money).
and because there are obviously numerous players doing both, at both ends, the ecto trader price, is determined by the players willingness or unwilingness to accept their current market value, and the speed in which they can be bought/sold. when this is unsatisfactory to the market, the ecto price will go up or down accordingly.
checking the merchant is really just a far, far quicker way of finding out what people are willing to buy/sell ecto at...if there were no merchant, it would take FAR longer to determine this factor.
and because the merchant is universal, it opens the market influence to a much, much larger player base, allowing the price to be more stable, as well as universal. if there were not ecto trader, the prices could differ from region to region or discrict to district; not because the merchant sets the price, but because the merchant is an ameagalation of a standardized universal acceptance of their market value.
now, because this is a game it is different form the real world economy in a few ways. yes, it still follows supply vs demand, and other various economic laws&theories, but one massive difference is that the devs CAN increase or decrease droprates dramatically, and thus change the prices dramatically.
its pretty obvious they have tinkered with it a bit, but for the most part we dont notice the changes unless they are quite substantial. as is the case with rare runes; inside of a few days, if not hours, superior vigors dropped from their 80-100k threshold, to 18k, then to 6k, etc, etc. this was more due to the increased droprate than anything else.

Quote:

And all those things change during time, accordingly to what A.net nerfs of buffs.

100% agree.
this is the one aspect where a wrench can be thrown in the wheel.
however, after a change, the market will eventually adjust, and continue along its merry way.

Quote:

My personal opinion, (and I, differently from someone else, admit that it's just one of the possible opinions and not the undisputable truth based on my vast economic culture) is that there's less "production" of ectos due to recent nerfs, so players probably prefer to farm elsewhere for plain cash and then convert it in ectos at trader.

this is true.
but, if the supply is shortened and the price increases, then those same people will return to ecto farming for the prospect of selling them at higher prices. and this, in effect, evntually drives the price back down again.
such is the magic of supply and demand.

Quote:

But, I repeat, this is just an opinion, and should be verified with actual data that unfortunately are not available.

and so are my thoughts...all 100% opinionated.
however, some opinions are more valid than others.
do i claim mine are more valid than yours or anyone elses? thats for the reader to decide.
obviously some people will agree with me, and others will disagree. different people may notice different outcomes, especially when you take into account different economic groups.
so, find a person whose opinions reflect your own observations, or whose predictions seem to be at least somewhat valid, and thoughts at least somewhat coherent, and realize that while it is just an opinion, it may be a valuable one.
yeah, opinions are like assholes...everyones got one, but that doesnt mean they should be ignored or discredited. while i disagree with some of your points, i think you need to give yourself more credit.

EDIT:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Antheus

Geez, dude. What did you get kicked out of economy course and now bare a grudge against anyone who might enter your chosen domain?

Take a chill pill, stop yelling, and take a break from game.

The only thing you managed to demonstrate, is complete ignorance of GW's economy. It's not real world economy, but in/out based system with inertia. It works the same way as ranking boards with votes determine the placement. Yes, it's controlled, yes it's biased. It's a controlled, pre-defined system. You do get initial spike when system is introduced, until parameters settle themself.

Yes, you can spike the prices. Yes, you can affect them yourself. Go buy 100 ectos and watch the prices. Or better yet, buy 500 of them.

long story short, a while back i invested over 39MILLION GOLD into ecto, and only made a 3% profit by influencing the market.
if you can even come close to matching the extent of this experiment and prove me wrong, feel free to do so.
but the fact of the matter is that by selling to the merchant or buying fromt he merchant you lose LARGE amounts of money; and you need to have a MASSIVE ecto base to break even, let alone make a profit.
then take into account that if you change the price too rapidly (as i previously stated, the market puts ecto where it wants, not the merchant) people will buy or sell to the merchant to correct the false price hike or price lull, and then the people who tried to control the prices, will lose substantial amounts of money.
yes, you can CHANGE the ecto merchant, and you can even change it substantially. but to think you could do so to your own benefit, with anything short of a massive ecto base, and a level of organization, is absolutly, 100% ridiculous.
sure, anyone with a stack of ecto could lower the price for a bit, or anyone with 5 million gold could raise it. but to confuse altering the merchant price, with price control, is a BIG msitake. because the market WILL correct a false price hike, unless its small enough to not cause alarm, with enough ectos released steadily to keep the price at a desired point. which is what i did in my experiment; i'd sell about a stack or two of ecto to the merchant over the period of the day to change the price by 500gp, occasionally 1,000gp if i was feeling risky, and then subsequently buy ectos back at a lower cost, and in greater numbers, to save myself money.

this is the post i made in regards to this experiment:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Akhilleus

no one person could influences prices for an even remotly substantial amount of time for more than 1 thing, and even then the cost woule be so absolutly astounding, they would have to be VERY careful in reinvesting in order to make an even marginal profit.
a while back, i aquired 4,800 ecto in about a months time. in order to lower the prices, i would sell my own stocks to the merchant to lower it by marginal amounts (you cannot raise or lower it by a large amount quickly or other people will notice the changes and simply correct the problem in the interests of making their own little profit), and then purchase far larger amounts of ecto, to save themselves money.
i am the ONLY player i have ever known to pull this off successfully; and what were the results?
i sold off 17.5million in ecto from my own stash to the trader, and purchased 36.9million from players during subsequent price reductions crated by my own selling (over the period of this month); with a net gain of 19.4million in ecto. by doing this i "gained" 6.24million gold by buying at cheaper prices, however, because i had to sell off a large amount of ecto at LESS than market value, i lost out on 5.04million; meaning, by doing this systematically in a well-planned-out, well thought-out and well-organized manner, i saved myself appx 1.2million.
a 1.2million gain, out of a base-investment total of 36.9million in liquid assets.
that is HARDLY worth the effort; a 3.25% net gain, about 1/5th-1/10th the gain i could have expected if i had just invested it into trade-capital...which is precicely why i never (and will never) did(do) it again.
and i wont even begin to pretend i could have done anything more than influence the prices slightly for anything more than a short amount of time, even with that level of investment.
quite frankly, thinking any 1 person can control the market is absolutly ludicrous.

Quote:

You think eBay and spike buying has no effect? A bunch of people buys 1 million each from eBay, then proceeds to buy ectos and shards. That drives the price up.

Ridle me this, oh great wizard of economics: Ecto: 9k, shards 2.8k - this very moment..

Funny, isn't it. Less than a day later, and prices are back to normal.

It was a coincidental spike buy from players. Most likely those who eBayed the cast for it. In addition, it could be eBay sellers who stock up on ectos, and sell them as packages.

There are long-term fluctuations, but this was not one of it. This was momentary occurance, not a trend.

because you obviously didnt read my post the first time:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Akhilleus

yet another case of someone not knowing what they are talking about.
ive said it once and i'll say it again, the hundreds of thousands or millions of players activly participating in the economy can, do, and will supercede the effect of a few people, except on a short term basis.
the price goes up when people get frustrated trying to buy ecto from other players for the current market-price, and so buy fomr the merchant instead. often, because the price will be raised, the same people that helped raise the price, will subsequently have an easier time finding players selling them, as more and more people dump their ecto on the market for the new raised price.
eventually the amount of ecto released reverses the process, as all the people now trying to sell at the higher price are getting frustrated with a lack of buyers, and then subsequently sell to the merchant, driving the price back down.
sometimes this process of ebb and flow takes hours, days, weeks or even months before it hits the crest and the lull respectivly.
the fact that you chalk off economic movements to ebay is a sheer demonstration of your absolute lack of economic understanding, as is the case of ANYONE crying ANY situation of a handful of ebayers driving up prices.
fact of the matter is, the wealthiest players in the game are NOT ebayers. and even so, the wealthiest players cannot and do not control the economy; feel free to countermand my argument on this point, i welcome you to do so, as i'd be looking forward to tearing you apart on this particular matter.
but i digress; 2 years ago, before ebay was even remotly approaching the foothills of being a problem in the game was the time period when ectos were at their highest.
but i guarantee you, the changing of hands of ecto on the open market, has a higher influence on the price than people buying/selling to the merchant.
the unintelligent individual thinks that the merchant sets the price of ecto.
W R O N G. the market sets the price; its only when the market is not providing what the player base's opinions of what the ecto market should be, that it then changes. you might say "well, when the ecto buy price is 8k and the sell price is 6k, that means their player to player value (market value) is 7k!" and then i'd countermand "no, thats incredibly short sighted. its because the market WANTS ecto at 7k, that people buy and sell to the merchant (by instinct and numbers) accordingly, to fall into the realm of their acceptance." the median price perceived at the material trader is merely a representation of the strength of ecto in perspect to the market economie's demand of them. plain and simple.
this is EXACTLY the same as in the real world economy...the value of the dollar bill doesnt go up and down because the government sais so; it goes up and down because of the purchases and exchanges made by people reflect upon its ability and power as a median for commerce; and accordingly effects what you can and cant get with said dollar. if the market thinks the dollar value should go up or down, it will do so naturally, due to its increased or decreased useage.

crying ebay every time theres a change in prices, isnt the answer.
occasionally the price has hiked up for an hour, and gone back down. occasionally its hiked up, and stayed there for a month or two.
its all a matter of how many players accept what price, for how long, and the funds they have to accomplish thus.
normally its thousands of players buying a handful or selling a handful here and there.
occasionally a few take it to a more sxtreme measure.
to cry ebay for market flucuations is just...short sighted.

Senator Tom · Jan 11, 2007, 04:55 AM // 04:55

I dyed my armor black when black dye was 39k per

White_Chaos · Jan 11, 2007, 02:21 PM // 14:21

Quote:

Originally Posted by Senator Tom

I dyed my armor black when black dye was 39k per

Omg when I started playing around 1.5 year ago they were wourth like 7-9k

And why are ectos prices going up with all the UW farming builds out there

Roshi_ikkyu · Jan 11, 2007, 02:52 PM // 14:52

rule one always blame Ebay and gold buyers. pfft

Jumping Is Uselss · Jan 11, 2007, 03:06 PM // 15:06

IMO I don't think ecto prices are rising when I logged on yesterday afternoon ecto prices were back to 8.5k . Also I don't think Ebay or gold buyers caused the increase in prices.

Blame the Monks · Jan 11, 2007, 04:39 PM // 16:39

Quote:

Originally Posted by Akhilleus

and each, and every one of those efforts most likely ended in a financial disaster.
and once again, if it were true that so few people controlled ecto prices, than my past experiment would have been a far, far greater success.
ive seen blacks at artificually high prices, as well as ecto, but they dont stay there for long, and the players know this.
i would think VERY few people actually bought ectos for the higher price that was recently seen, knowing it would go back down; only the impatient types that brought it up to begin with; and are now kicking themselves.

Not at all, people made a crapload of money and the economy got so out of whack a.net had to reset the servers as more and more people started doing it. I personally turned about 80k into my first set of FOW using this type of price fixing. Its also how I got my first sup abs (back when they were 100k+).

The longest manipulation I know of lasted around 3 weeks, but I am not an expert. And who cares how long they stay high -- the point is price are subject to manipulation because the size of the market is small. This is where your econ breaks down -- you are assuming a large, efficient market when this doesn't exist in GW (or anywhere, for that matter).

And finally, please format and spellcheck your posts. It is hard to take this quasi academic discussion seriously when people don't even bother to capitalize at the start of sentences.

Blame the Monks · Jan 11, 2007, 04:42 PM // 16:42

Quote:

Originally Posted by Akhilleus

and each, and every one of those efforts most likely ended in a financial disaster.
and once again, if it were true that so few people controlled ecto prices, than my past experiment would have been a far, far greater success.
ive seen blacks at artificually high prices, as well as ecto, but they dont stay there for long, and the players know this.
i would think VERY few people actually bought ectos for the higher price that was recently seen, knowing it would go back down; only the impatient types that brought it up to begin with; and are now kicking themselves.

Not at all, people made a crapload of money and the economy got so out of whack a.net had to reset the servers as more and more people started doing it. I personally turned about 80k into my first set of FOW using this type of price fixing. Its also how I got my first sup abs (back when they were 100k+).

The longest manipulation I know of lasted around 3 weeks, but I am not an expert. And who cares how long they stay high -- the point is price are subject to manipulation because the size of the market is small. This is where your econ breaks down -- you are assuming a large, efficient market when this doesn't exist in GW (or anywhere, for that matter).

And finally, please format and spellcheck your posts. It is hard to take this quasi academic discussion seriously when people don't even bother to capitalize at the start of sentences.

VladDrakken · Jan 11, 2007, 07:04 PM // 19:04

Quote:

Originally Posted by Akhilleus

yet another case of someone not knowing what they are talking about.
ive said it once and i'll say it again, the hundreds of thousands or millions of players activly participating in the economy can, do, and will supercede the effect of a few people, except on a short term basis.
the price goes up when people get frustrated trying to buy ecto from other players for the current market-price, and so buy fomr the merchant instead. often, because the price will be raised, the same people that helped raise the price, will subsequently have an easier time finding players selling them, as more and more people dump their ecto on the market for the new raised price.
eventually the amount of ecto released reverses the process, as all the people now trying to sell at the higher price are getting frustrated with a lack of buyers, and then subsequently sell to the merchant, driving the price back down.
sometimes this process of ebb and flow takes hours, days, weeks or even months before it hits the crest and the lull respectivly.
the fact that you chalk off economic movements to ebay is a sheer demonstration of your absolute lack of economic understanding, as is the case of ANYONE crying ANY situation of a handful of ebayers driving up prices.
fact of the matter is, the wealthiest players in the game are NOT ebayers. and even so, the wealthiest players cannot and do not control the economy; feel free to countermand my argument on this point, i welcome you to do so, as i'd be looking forward to tearing you apart on this particular matter.
but i digress; 2 years ago, before ebay was even remotly approaching the foothills of being a problem in the game was the time period when ectos were at their highest.
but i guarantee you, the changing of hands of ecto on the open market, has a higher influence on the price than people buying/selling to the merchant.
the unintelligent individual thinks that the merchant sets the price of ecto.
W R O N G. the market sets the price; its only when the market is not providing what the player base's opinions of what the ecto market should be, that it then changes. you might say "well, when the ecto buy price is 8k and the sell price is 6k, that means their player to player value (market value) is 7k!" and then i'd countermand "no, thats incredibly short sighted. its because the market WANTS ecto at 7k, that people buy and sell to the merchant (by instinct and numbers) accordingly, to fall into the realm of their acceptance." the median price perceived at the material trader is merely a representation of the strength of ecto in perspect to the market economie's demand of them. plain and simple.
this is EXACTLY the same as in the real world economy...the value of the dollar bill doesnt go up and down because the government sais so; it goes up and down because of the purchases and exchanges made by people reflect upon its ability and power as a median for commerce; and accordingly effects what you can and cant get with said dollar. if the market thinks the dollar value should go up or down, it will do so naturally, due to its increased or decreased useage.

Actually, this is bullcrap since I know I - and a few others - control the price of ... DIAMONDS!

To elaborate, we all know that there's no use for Diamond's yet. The only way you can get them is via treasure chests (the freebie kind), trade contracts and (to some degree) from salvage, but have you ever wondered why the price hovers around 5.5k - 6k and isn't around 3k like Sapphires and Rubies were pre-NF?

We may be fools for investing in diamonds, but thats for another thread. :P

Vladimir Drakken
Merchant Guild

Akhilleus · Jan 11, 2007, 08:33 PM // 20:33

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blame the Monks

Not at all, people made a crapload of money and the economy got so out of whack a.net had to reset the servers as more and more people started doing it. I personally turned about 80k into my first set of FOW using this type of price fixing. Its also how I got my first sup abs (back when they were 100k+).

The longest manipulation I know of lasted around 3 weeks, but I am not an expert. And who cares how long they stay high -- the point is price are subject to manipulation because the size of the market is small. This is where your econ breaks down -- you are assuming a large, efficient market when this doesn't exist in GW (or anywhere, for that matter).

And finally, please format and spellcheck your posts. It is hard to take this quasi academic discussion seriously when people don't even bother to capitalize at the start of sentences.

wow.
you totally proved me wrong; an experiment of 80k, and a guestimation of a 3 week "price fix" vs an actual experiment with one of the largest investment capitals ever raised in GW.
you totally top me there.
/endsarcasm.

if you think the market for ecto is small; go take a look how many trades are completed in 100k+ecto, or ecto alone.
anet has only done ONE server rollback in its history (at least that i can recall off the top of my head).
and that was to reset the SECOND reseting of ecto prices (contrary to common belief, the first ecto price reset was HARDLY substantial enough to ruin the economy, or even ruin ecto prices).
anet has N E V E R done a server rollback to undo price-fixing.
if they would have done a server rollback for this, it PROBABLY would ahve been for the month i was influencing the prices.
i would sell a stack or two periodically over a day to lower the price, and over the period of that day, buy a much larger amount of ecto at the new reduced costs. over the period of this month, i probably cycled somewhere on the lines of 4-6 thousand ecto through the merchant. i didnt keep track of how many, but it was quite a few. and with a base investment of over 39m, i onyl cleared a 3.25% profit margin, which is absolutly, 100% pathetic.
i made less off of investing 39million into ecto over the period of a month, than i did in ANY one WEEK of trading from mid august05 to early april06.
and RARELY did the amount of funds i'd invest into trade capital over the period of a week exceed 15m (was usually between 5-7m).

Quote:

Originally Posted by VladDrakken

Actually, this is bullcrap since I know I - and a few others - control the price of ... DIAMONDS!

Vladimir Drakken
Merchant Guild

im taking the argument up with ecto, because its a market large enough to not be controlled.
perhaps the diamond market is different, but under that line of argument, i single handedly control the market on r8 14% no cond serpant axes.
but, as i stated in a previous post, im referring to ecto, which are more or less open for business to all player classes.
some things are uncommon enough towards the prices are theoretically determined by the holders.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blame the Monks

Not at all, some people made a crapload of money, causing the economy to get so out of whack a.net had to reset the servers as more and more people started doing it. I personally turned about 80k into my first set of FOW using this type of price fixing. It's also how I aquired my first sup abs, back when they were 100k+.

The longest manipulation I know of lasted around 3 weeks however, I am not an expert. Who cares how long they stay high, the point remains prices are subject to manipulation because of the small market size. This displays where your econ. breaks down; you are assuming a large and efficient market when this doesn't exist in GW, or anywhere for that matter.

Finally, please format and spellcheck your posts. It proves hard to take this quasi-academic discussion seriously when people don't even bother to capitalize at the start of their sentences.

this isnt english class; there is no requirement as to the demeanor of posts.
however, since you are such the critic of my writing skills, i decided to go grammar-nazi on your post.
before you try to convince me to alter my posts to be gramatically sound, try doing so in your own post.

VladDrakken · Jan 11, 2007, 09:17 PM // 21:17

Quote:

im taking the argument up with ecto, because its a market large enough to not be controlled.
perhaps the diamond market is different, but under that line of argument, [BOLD] i single handedly control the market on r8 14% no cond serpant axes.[/BOLD]
but, as i stated in a previous post, im referring to ecto, which are more or less open for business to all player classes.
some things are uncommon enough towards the prices are theoretically determined by the holders.

Your sarcasm sir *slaps Akh with a steel gauntlet* ... is dethhhpicable!

On a serious note, why did the general populace picked ectos? Is it because of the low drop rate and the FoW requirements? (Im new, been playing for 4 months only)

Vladimir Drakken
Merchant Guild

Blame the Monks · Jan 11, 2007, 10:01 PM // 22:01

Quote:

Originally Posted by Akhilleus

wow.
you totally proved me wrong; an experiment of 80k, and a guestimation of a 3 week "price fix" vs an actual experiment with one of the largest investment capitals ever raised in GW.
you totally top me there.
/endsarcasm.

Your "experiment" is undocumented, lacks controls, and is ultimately worthless. To the extent your "experiment" purports to prove price fixing cannot occur by artificially influencing supply, it fails not only to provide any meaningful, controlled data but it also misses the point. By contrast, my example is from real life and one most people will recall. Furthermore, my example shows when supply was actually controlled, it was commonly known, and it was so severe it had to be roll backed.

In the old roll back, a few people completely controlled the supply of an item by buying out the trader and by buying out all small time sellers during a fixed time. As prices rose, other small-time sellers tried to take advantage of the rising price by selling, but because they lacked the volume to counteract the big players, prices continued to rise. Despite your posts, the amount of ecto farmed or hoarded has no impact on prices. Thus, the only thing that matters is if anyone (and/or the collective whole) has enough supply to counteract the wholesale buying of the cartel. In this case, they did not. Because this small group was able to temporarily eliminate other sources of supply, these few people were able to artificially drive up prices to exploit the trader. In this very public example, the market lacked sufficient volume to meet the short term demand and so prices skyrocketed. Once prices were artificially inflated, the cartel dumped their supply, made a fortune, and normal market conditions resumed. After this happened several times, anet stepped in.

In your "experiment," you barely affected supply at all, which not surprisingly had little effect on price. Instead, you attempted to keep supply equal and take advantage of the price fluctuations -- arbitrage. In other words, you did not actually measure if a person could affect the market by artificially influencing supply, you measured if you could buy back ecto faster than the prices adjusted. Not surprisingly, your arbitrage had little if any effect on the overall market. To the extent you believed your experiment in arbitrage would show anything about price fixing, your thinking was fundamentally flawed as you conflated two distinct economic behaviors -- price fixing by short term manipulation of supply and arbitrage.

You made the same mistake you ridicule others for earlier in the thread -- you made the mistake of thinking trader price determines the market, not supply and demand. The price fixers, by contrast, knew that those who control the supply set the price. So yeah, I clearly did top you. My example was relevant and based on an understanding of economics, while yours was not. You just didn't realize how complete your failure was until I baby-stepped you through it.

Malice Black · Jan 12, 2007, 02:13 AM // 02:13

Anyone for tea?

Akhilleus · Jan 12, 2007, 03:52 AM // 03:52

Warning: the slaughter of an unsubstantiated liar, and his dillusions of grandeur ensues.

first, let me post this:
this is the link to the wiki post about the rollback, also, with a highlighted quote, by anet itself, on why they did the rollback.
http://gw.gamewikis.org/wiki/Game_updates/20060313
"As you may be aware, we experienced some technical issues that resulted in the need to conduct an approximately one-hour roll-back of Guild Wars on Monday, March 13th. What prompted our decision to do the roll-back was the fact that the game economy was at risk, because during a brief window of opportunity, a huge number of items had been purchased for ridiculously low prices. This infusion of items into the economy would have devalued all the items in the game, and would have crippled the game economy."

i believe your imaginary rollback due to the obviously false exploits of you and your friends was just disproven.
i think you just got ruined.

Quote:

Your "experiment" is undocumented, lacks controls, and is ultimately worthless. To the extent your "experiment" purports to prove price fixing cannot occur by artificially influencing supply, it fails not only to provide any meaningful, controlled data but it also misses the point.

what my experiment proves is that someone with both the organization and the means to do such a thing, releasing ecto in a controlled, thought out manner in specific locations to specific individuals, cannot hope to compete, at least at length, with the market.

Quote:

By contrast, my example is from real life and one most people will recall.

really? who can back up this half-assed story?
aside from the fact that you were very obviously mistaken on why anet did a rollback.

Quote:

Furthermore, my example shows when supply was actually controlled, it was commonly known, and it was so severe it had to be roll backed.

see above.

Quote:

In the old roll back, a few people completely controlled the supply of an item by buying out the trader and by buying out all small time sellers during a fixed time. As prices rose, other small-time sellers tried to take advantage of the rising price by selling, but because they lacked the volume to counteract the big players, prices continued to rise.

so you think you and your little trouppe of wanna-be bigboys constitute the means to control prices?
to think you and your friends could hope to compete and succeed against the wealthiest players in the game is a pretty ridiculous claim.
ignoring the fact that any 1 of the top notch wealth could probably have kamikazid your plan, if they hadnt done it, the regular base of ecto purveyors would have been more than happy to ruin your half-baked scheme.
newsflash: paying for a set of FoW from taking advantage of the price reset, doesnt set you among the elites.

Quote:

Despite your posts, the amount of ecto farmed or hoarded has no impact on prices. Thus, the only thing that matters is if anyone (and/or the collective whole) has enough supply to counteract the wholesale buying of the cartel. In this case, they did not.

really? hoarding ecto has no bearing on the prices?
wow, you have a greater lack of economic understanding than i thought humanly possible.
newsflash:
if every person who got an ecto immidiatly turned around and dumped it, as opposed to hoarding, it would cause far too many ectos to be placed on the open market, with a far too quick rate of circulation, driving the prices down.
secondly, if every person with 500+ ecto were to dump them onto the market periodically untill their entire stash was emptied out, it would RUIN ecto prices, quite possibly for a number of months.

Quote:

Because this small group was able to temporarily eliminate other sources of supply, these few people were able to artificially drive up prices to exploit the trader. In this very public example, the market lacked sufficient volume to meet the short term demand and so prices skyrocketed. Once prices were artificially inflated, the cartel dumped their supply, made a fortune, and normal market conditions resumed. After this happened several times, anet stepped in.

if you think you and your friends control the ecto supply, you'll become the laughing stock of guru.
and whats your idea of "a fortune?"

Quote:

In your "experiment," you barely affected supply at all, which not surprisingly had little effect on price. Instead, you attempted to keep supply equal and take advantage of the price fluctuations -- arbitrage. In other words, you did not actually measure if a person could affect the market by artificially influencing supply, you measured if you could buy back ecto faster than the prices adjusted. Not surprisingly, your arbitrage had little if any effect on the overall market. To the extent you believed your experiment in arbitrage would show anything about price fixing, your thinking was fundamentally flawed as you conflated two distinct economic behaviors -- price fixing by short term manipulation of supply and arbitrage.

if i had merely sold to players, i would have lost money, as opposed to made money.
by releasing them in a controlled manner in specific locations to specific people, you dont have to CONTROL the prices, you INFLUENCE them...i wasnt running countermand to the will of the ecto market, i was merely nudging it in the right direction. and by doing so carefully, i was able to convince quite a few other ecto purveyors to go along with it.
you see, you dont HAVE to control the prices, if you merely go along with the flow and maybee just lay a hand in there here and there.
as i stated in the origional post on this matter; i didnt go head-long like a dumbass selling ecto the the merchant in droves, i sold a few here and there, sold a few on the open market to keep the illusion up, and then hit up the major ecto suppliers for mass amounts at once. in short, i helped convince john doe GW player that the ecto price was XXX, then i went to the big boys and said "why sell 10 to these guys at a time, when you can sell to me for 200 at a time?". and repeat the process.
think of it this way.
which do you think would provide a larger profit margin:
buying up massive amounts of stocks from a company, waiting for the price to go up due to your own massive buying, and then dumping them
or...
waiting untill the prices start going lower, then gradually selling off stocks, while convincing other holders that the price will be going down for a while, and then subsequently talking to the other MAJOR stockholders in the company to buy up their stocks en masse`, then reverse your public stance and wait for the price to go back up naturally.

hmmmm, i wonder which is more productive in the long-run.

Quote:

You made the same mistake you ridicule others for earlier in the thread -- you made the mistake of thinking trader price determines the market, not supply and demand. The price fixers, by contrast, knew that those who control the supply set the price.

i'd love to post one of my posts in here where i VERY CLEARLY stated that the merchant does NOT control the price. but im sure if you read ANY of my posts in this thread, you'd find that for yourself.

Quote:

So yeah, I clearly did top you. My example was relevant and based on an understanding of economics, while yours was not. You just didn't realize how complete your failure was until I baby-stepped you through it.

your example was OBVIOUSLY a lie, for a number of reasons.
A: assuming you had actually managed to pull this off, you would have been shut down by a joint effort of the wealthy players and middle-class investors, in the interests of making their own profit. aside from the fact that ONE truly wealthy player alone could have probably annihilated the entire scheme.
B: anet never did a rollback for price controlling, which alone disproves your entire claim.